Suzhou Electric Appliance Research Institute
期刊號(hào): CN32-1800/TM| ISSN1007-3175

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新能源不確定功率預(yù)測(cè)方法綜述

來(lái)源:電工電氣發(fā)布時(shí)間:2018-09-14 09:14 瀏覽次數(shù):736
新能源不確定功率預(yù)測(cè)方法綜述
 
吳晨媛,呂干云,吳啟宇,蔣小偉
(南京工程學(xué)院 電力工程學(xué)院,江蘇 南京 211167)
 
    摘 要:新能源的不確定性功率預(yù)測(cè)研究能在傳統(tǒng)預(yù)測(cè)模型基礎(chǔ)上提高其預(yù)測(cè)精度并提供一定的概率信息和預(yù)測(cè)區(qū)間。從誤差概率密度預(yù)測(cè)、區(qū)間預(yù)測(cè)兩個(gè)方面對(duì)新能源功率預(yù)測(cè)的不確定性進(jìn)行分析,總結(jié)歸納了各種不同的模型及其優(yōu)缺點(diǎn)和評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo),并探討了新能源不確定功率預(yù)測(cè)存在的問(wèn)題及今后需要深入研究的方向。
    關(guān)鍵詞:新能源功率預(yù)測(cè);不確定性;誤差概率密度預(yù)測(cè);區(qū)間預(yù)測(cè)
    中圖分類號(hào):TM715     文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識(shí)碼:A     文章編號(hào):1007-3175(2018)09-0001-06
 
Survey of Uncertainty Power Prediction Technique in New Energy
 
WU Chen-yuan, LV Gan-yun, WU Qi-yu, JIANG Xiao-wei
(School of Electric Power Engineering, Nanjing Institute of Technology, Nanjing 2111 67, China)
 
    Abstract: Uncertainty power prediction for the new energy prediction study, based on the traditional prediction model, could improve its prediction accuracy and provide a certain probability information and prediction interval. This paper analyzed the uncertainty of new energy power prediction, from the aspects of error probability density prediction and interval prediction, and summarized various models and their advantages, disadvantages and evaluation indexes. Finally, this paper discussed the problem of uncertainty prediction for the new energy power and directions for further research in the future.
    Key words: new energy power prediction; uncertainty; error probability density prediction; interval prediction
 
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