基于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估和成本分析的變壓器維修策略研究

 

周博

（國網(wǎng)湖北省電力有限公司隨州供電公司，湖北 隨州 441300）

 

    摘 要：針對電力變壓器檢修管理中，單一的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)模型和成本模型不能同時(shí)考慮到安全性與經(jīng)濟(jì)性要求，提出一種基于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估和成本分析的維修策略。以風(fēng)險(xiǎn)理論為基礎(chǔ)，結(jié)合設(shè)備故障概率和故障可能導(dǎo)致的資產(chǎn)及系統(tǒng)損失，評(píng)估變壓器運(yùn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值；針對風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估結(jié)果，通過引入ALARP 準(zhǔn)則劃分風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可接受等級(jí)，判斷是否需要檢修工作。對于經(jīng)濟(jì)性指標(biāo)，利用全壽命成本理論對變壓器壽命周期內(nèi)各成本要素進(jìn)行劃分、量化計(jì)算，再以最小年金成本為判據(jù)確定設(shè)備現(xiàn)齡是否在其最佳壽命周期內(nèi)，并在綜合考慮電力變壓器的運(yùn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與當(dāng)前役齡的基礎(chǔ)上，制定出兼具安全性與經(jīng)濟(jì)性的維修策略。實(shí)際案例表明，此維修策略可行。

    關(guān)鍵詞：變壓器；維修策略；風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估；全壽命周期成本；ALARP 準(zhǔn)則

    中圖分類號(hào)：TM407     文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識(shí)碼：A     文章編號(hào)：1007-3175(2019)05-0012-05

    Abstract: In the maintenance management of power transformers, considering that a single risk or cost model can’t take into account the safety and economic requirements, this paper proposed a maintenance strategy based on risk assessment and cost analysis. Based on the risk theory, the operational risk value of transformer was evaluated according to the equipment failure probability and the possible loss of assets and system. In allusion to the results of risk assessment, the ALARP criterion was adopted to classify the acceptable level of risk to determine whether the maintenance work was needed. For economic indicators, this paper divided and quantified those cost elements in the life cycle of transformer through life cycle cost theory, and the minimum cost was used as the criterion to judge whether the current service age of transformer was at its best in the life cycle. On the basis of comprehensively considering the operation risk of power transformer and its current service age, this paper worked out the maintenance strategy with both security and economy. The actual case shows the feasible of this maintenance strategy.

    Key words: transformer; maintenance strategy; risk assessment; life cycle cost; ALARP criterion