基于層次分析法的110 kV電網(wǎng)綜合安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估研究
馮大偉1，尹云劍2，王震泉1，管永高1
（1 中國能源建設(shè)集團(tuán)江蘇省電力設(shè)計(jì)院有限公司，江蘇 南京 211102；
2 國網(wǎng)江蘇省電力有限公司檢修分公司，江蘇 南京 211102）
摘 要：將電網(wǎng)安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)相關(guān)的網(wǎng)絡(luò)拓?fù)浣Y(jié)構(gòu)、負(fù)荷、線路載流量等基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化處理，根據(jù)配電網(wǎng)直接面向負(fù)荷的特點(diǎn)，建立起基于負(fù)荷損失風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的110 kV電網(wǎng)安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)計(jì)算模型，利用層次分析法與雷達(dá)圖將風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)和標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化處理之后的基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行聚合，并通過雷達(dá)圖反映指標(biāo)聚合前后的變化，找出影響電網(wǎng)安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的關(guān)鍵指標(biāo)。建立起一套基于110 kV電網(wǎng)基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)的綜合安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估體系，來反映電網(wǎng)存在的安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)點(diǎn)，以便于電網(wǎng)運(yùn)行管理者對(duì)影響110 kV電網(wǎng)安全的關(guān)鍵指標(biāo)加以改善。以某地級(jí)市電網(wǎng)進(jìn)行實(shí)際測(cè)試，結(jié)果表明，所述方法能準(zhǔn)確反映造成電網(wǎng)安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的主要指標(biāo)，與電網(wǎng)實(shí)際運(yùn)行情況基本相符。
關(guān)鍵詞：110 kV電網(wǎng)；安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)計(jì)算模型；層次分析法；基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)聚合；綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估體系
中圖分類號(hào)：TM732 文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識(shí)碼：A 文章編號(hào)：1007-3175(2019)08-0021-05
Research on Comprehensive 110 kV Power Grid Security Risk Assessment Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process
FENG Da-wei1, YIN Yun-jian2, WANG Zhen-quan1, GUAN Yong-gao1
（1 China Energy Engineering Group Jiangsu Power Design Institute Co., Ltd, Nanjing 2111 02, China;
2 State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Co., Ltd, Maintenance Branch Company, Nanjing 2111 02, China）
Abstract: This paper standardized the basic data related to grid security risk, including the topological structure of power grid, load and current carrying capacity of transmission lines. As distribution systems were directly based on load, an 110 kV power grid security risk calculation model based on load loss risk was established to calculate risk indicators. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and radar chart method were used to aggregate the risk indicators and the standardized basic data. Key indicators that affected the power grid security risks could be identified by analyzing the indicators changes before and after the aggregation in the radar chart. This paper established a comprehensive safety risk assessment system based on the basic data of 110 kV power grid to reflect the security risk point existing in power grid, so that the power grid operation administrator could improve the key indicators that affected the 110 kV power grid security. An actual test was carried out on certain city power grid. The results show that the method mentioned above can accurately reflect the main indicators affecting the grid security risks, which is basically consistent with the actual operation of the power grid.
Key words: 110 kV power grid; security risk calculation model; analytic hierarchy process; essential data aggregate; integrated risk assessment system
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