Abstract: As the living standards of Chinese people improves, the power supply intensity of transformer area for residents’ electricity service is rising. To achieve real-time monitoring and evaluation of the reliability of transformer area in operation, this paper puts forward a theory of evaluating the reliability of transformer area based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. This method manages to realize the order reduction and decoupling of advanced data when large amounts of information needs to be processed. It not only can save costs, but also can find the transformer area with potential safety risks in time and arrange operations people to deal with problems. After more than a year of field operation and maintenance test, the results show that this evaluation method is effective and scientific.

    Key words: transformer area reliability; Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC); evaluation method