基于貝葉斯網絡的牽引變電所主接線可靠性評估 

尹維恒，解紹鋒，陳民武，梁澤川，鄧大磊 
西南交通大學 電氣工程學院，四川 成都 610031 
 

摘 要：貝葉斯網絡是研究不確定性問題的重要方法之一，把貝葉斯網絡法用到牽引變電所的可靠性評估中，結合牽引變電所電氣主接線的故障樹和最小路來建立貝葉斯網絡。通過故障樹的貝葉斯網絡計算了其可靠性指標，能夠有效地識別系統(tǒng)的薄弱環(huán)節(jié)，實現了牽引變電所可靠性的定性和定量評估。用基于最小路的貝葉斯網絡對上面的可靠性指標進行了驗證，為牽引變電所可靠性評估提供了新的方法。
關鍵詞：貝葉斯網絡；牽引變電所；可靠性評估；故障樹；最小路
中圖分類號：TM922.4 文獻標識碼：A 文章編號：1007-3175(2013)08-0029-05

Reliability Assessment of Main Electric Connection of Traction Substation Based on Bayesian Network 

YIN Wei-heng, XIE Shao-feng, CHEN Min-wu, LIANG Ze-chuan, DENG Da-lei 
School of Electrical Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, China 
 

Abstract: Bayesian network (BN) is one of the most effective tools to study uncertain problems. This paper used BN method to evaluate the reliability of traction substation. The fault tree and the minimal path of main electric connection of traction substation were combined to build Bayesian network. This paper calculated its reliability index through Bayesian network of the fault tree, which could effectively identify the weakness of the system, to realize the qualitative and quantitative assessment of reliability in traction substation. The mentioned reliability index above is verified by Bayesian networks based on the minimal path, which provides a new method for the assessment of traction substation reliability.
Key words: Bayesian network; traction substation; reliability assessment; fault tree; minimal path

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