基于層次分析法的大型電力變壓器風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估技術(shù)研究
杜富豪1，龍菲2
（1 國(guó)網(wǎng)電力科學(xué)研究院武漢南瑞有限責(zé)任公司，湖北 武漢 430074;
2 國(guó)網(wǎng)湖北省電力公司黃石供電公司，湖北 黃石 435000）
摘 要：提出一種基于層次分析法的變壓器風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估新方法，結(jié)合設(shè)備狀態(tài)、設(shè)備重要度、負(fù)荷系數(shù)及運(yùn)行環(huán)境因素，建立了一套綜合描述變壓器安全運(yùn)行的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估指標(biāo)量化體系。利用層次分析法進(jìn)行設(shè)備風(fēng)險(xiǎn)決策級(jí)融合，得出變壓器風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)，利用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)的大小進(jìn)行設(shè)備風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的排序，來(lái)合理安排設(shè)備檢修，提高狀態(tài)檢修效率。以某地區(qū)兩臺(tái)500 kV電力變壓器為例對(duì)所提模型進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估結(jié)果和實(shí)際相符，證明了該方法的可行性。
關(guān)鍵詞：變壓器；層次分析法；狀態(tài)評(píng)價(jià)；風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估
中圖分類號(hào)：TM41 文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識(shí)碼：A 文章編號(hào)：1007-3175(2016)04-0031-05
Research on Large-Scale Power Transformers Risk Assessment Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process
DU Fu-hao1, LONG Fei2
（1 Wuhan Nari Limited Liability Company of State Grid Electric Power Research Institute, Wuhan 430074, China;
2 State Grid Hubei Electric Power Company Huangshi Power Supply Company, Huangshi 435000, China）
Abstract: The paper proposed a new kind of assessment approach based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP). A set of assessment index quantification system was established considering this device status, device importance, load factor and operating environmental factors. The AHP was used to evaluate equipment risk decision fusion to obtain transformer risk indicator. According to the risk indicator, the equipment risk was sorted to arrange equipment overhaul reasonably to raise the efficiency of condition based maintenance. Taking two 500 kV power transformers in certain area for example, this paper verifies the proposed model. The risk assessment result is conformed to practical conditions, which proves the feasibility of this method.
Key words: transformer; analytic hierarchy process; condition assessment; risk assessment
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